Clinical Resources

STS Predicted Risk of Mortality

Simplified Bedside Estimate — Society of Thoracic Surgeons Risk Model

Procedure Type

Age

years

Sex

BMI

kg/m²

Diabetes

Creatinine

mg/dL

LVEF

Chronic Lung Disease

Operative Status

Dialysis Currently on renal dialysis

Prior cardiac surgery One or more prior sternotomies

Cerebrovascular disease History of CVA, TIA, or carotid stenosis ≥50%

Peripheral artery disease Claudication, amputation, prior vascular intervention, or ABI <0.9

Active endocarditis

Critical preoperative state IABP, inotropes, mechanical ventilation, or cardiogenic shock

Results

Estimated Operative Mortality —

Risk Category —

Enter patient data above

Important Disclaimer

This is a simplified estimate based on the key variables that drive most of the STS risk prediction. The full STS model uses 60+ variables and is procedure-specific. For definitive risk assessment, use the official STS Risk Calculator at riskcalc.sts.org.

Risk Categories

Low Risk: <2% predicted mortality
Medium Risk: 2–5% predicted mortality
High Risk: 5–10% predicted mortality
Very High Risk: >10% predicted mortality

Interpretation

The STS Predicted Risk of Mortality (PROM) is the benchmark metric used in heart team discussions, especially for decisions regarding TAVR vs. SAVR (where STS-PROM ≥4% favors a transcatheter approach per ACC/AHA guidelines) and for surgical candidacy in general.

References

O'Brien SM, Feng L, He X, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2018 Adult Cardiac Surgery Risk Models. Ann Thorac Surg. 2018;105(5):1411-1418. doi:10.1016/j.athoracsur.2018.03.002
Shahian DM, Jacobs JP, Badhwar V, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2018 Adult Cardiac Surgery Risk Models: Part 1 — Background, Design Considerations, and Model Development. Ann Thorac Surg. 2018;105(5):1411-1418.
Otto CM, Nishimura RA, Bonow RO, et al. 2020 ACC/AHA Guideline for the Management of Patients With Valvular Heart Disease. Circulation. 2021;143(5):e72-e227.